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UPDATE – Exit Poll Discrepancies Fit Chronic Republican Vote-Count Rigging, Not Random Statistical Patterns

CPEG’s Ron Baiman has released an unused affidavit which includes data and analysis that corrects, updates, and expands on the data used in an earlier CPEG article.

Download the affidavit (PDF)

The Poverty of Neoclassical Economic Analysis

The Poverty of Neoclassical Economic Analysis, by CPEG’s Ron Baiman, is a response to recent denunciations of economic analysis regarding economic proposals from U.S. Presidential Candidate Bernie Sanders. Baiman writes “When I first got wind of the denunciation of Prof. Gerald Friedman’s Bernienomics impact estimates by prominent liberal Economists, two questions came immediately to mind. Who were these “liberal economists” and what were their objections? A little googling around got me the first answer in a jiffy. The liberal economists were four former Chairs of the Council of Economic Advisors (CEA) under Democratic Presidents Clinton and Obama: Alan Kreuger, Austan Goolsbee, Christina Romer, and Laura D’Andrea Tyson. It took more time and more work to establish the second answer.” Click below to read the full essay.

Who Hates Obamacare: A Rejoinder

The following piece, authored by CPEG’s Bruce Parry, is a response to Paul Krugman’s February 5th New York Times Op-Ed entitled “Who Hates Obamacare”

In his February 5th Op-Ed piece, Paul Krugman vilifies the Sanders supporters for their position on health care in the United States and their evaluation of Obamacare in particular. He starts out with an anecdote about Ted Cruz, but for the rest of the article ignores the subject of how much the Republicans hate Obamacare. Yet it is the right — driven by the insurance companies, the pharmaceutical companies and other business interests that seem to elude Krugman — that really hates Obamacare. Instead he focuses his vitriol on the left.

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Winter 2015 Quarterly CPEG Notes

Click below to read CPEG Notes, a series of quarterly analyses of current economic reality by the Chicago Political Economy Group. In this edition: Prof. Joseph Persky examines the limping U.S. economy, Mel Rothenberg’s International Note examines the European refugee influx and economic crisis, Ron Baiman talks labor and the fight for $15, Bruce Parry talks trade and the TPP, and finally Bill Barclay dives into high frequency trading and a court case regarding “spoofing”.

Commentary on the November 2014 BLS Jobs Report

The headlines are euphoric: “Big Job Gains and Rising Pay in Latest U.S. Data” (NYT 12/6/2014) and indeed the 321,000 payroll jobs increase, 9-cent increase in average hourly wages and 0.1 hour increase in weekly hours last month exceeded expectations and is reminiscent of the 300-400 thousand monthly job growth and rising wages of the late 90’s tech boom bubble economy glory days. These November payroll (Establishment Survey) numbers are good, the kind of monthly job growth that could eventually dig us out of the Lesser Depression hole if they consistently continue for another couple of years (eyeballing from Figure 2 below). This would get us back to the Emp/Pop ratio of 2007 assuming that major Labor Force population age cohorts (16-24, 25-54, 55 and over) were the same share of the overall population in November 2007 when the Lesser Depression started as they were in November 2014 (see Figure 2 explanation). We would still be far below post-war Emp/Pop ratios without taking demographic changes into account (Figure 1 below) but, with increased productivity and more redistribution of income among the cohorts (more wishful thinking), “sort of” where we were in Nov. 2007. Of course expansions out of every past post-war recession have led to a recovery of demographically adjusted employment losses within at most 4 years (see Figure 2) and this would require 7 years of continuous expansion with the most robust job growth in the last couple of years, but at least we would get back to where we were (on a demographically adjusted basis) 9 years after the start of the Lesser Depression.

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