Tag Archive for Recession

Commentary on the December 2013 BLS Jobs Report

The theme of this month’s jobs report ought to be ‘not enough.’ The latest disappointing numbers are far lower than the optimistic expectations voiced by many economists after ADP reported payroll growth of 238,000 in December 2013. CPEG has been arguing for years that what job growth the U.S. economy has seen since the official end of the ‘great recession’ has been inadequate. In fact, the total number of employed workers in the U.S. is still lower than it was before the start of the great recession. The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced this morning that the economy added 74,000 jobs in December 2013, falling far short of expectations. This anemic job growth brings the total employment in the country to less than what it was in November 2007, the month before the great recession started. It’s important to note that if the economy had added the 200,000+ jobs that many expected, we would still not have reached pre-recession employment levels. Even a ‘good’ jobs report would have been disappointing.

Read more

Commentary on the November 2013 BLS Jobs Report

The markets – Dow is up more than 150 points – and the media – “economy set to add most jobs since 2005” – liked today’s jobs report: 203,000 jobs created in November 2013. And, of course, we should be glad over 200,000 people had jobs in November who didn’t have them in October. But does this mean that the economy is up and running for us? Perhaps the best way to answer that question is to take three dates: Nov 2007, the last month before what has been labeled the “great recession,” June 2009, the official end of the “great recession”, and today and look at the job numbers. The table below provides that comparison (all numbers in 000s, population and labor force are people 16 and over, seasonally adjusted).

Read more

Commentary on the October 2013 BLS Jobs Report

Though payroll jobs (establishment survey) increased by 204,000 in October, overall employment (household survey) declined by 735,000, indicating that the U.S. employment situation remains dismal. More telling, long-term employment (of 27 weeks or more) remains at 4.1 million, approximately double the level of prior recessions. The Official Unemployment rate also remained essentially unchanged, increasing slightly from 7.2% to 7.3%. The more accurate U-6 unemployment rate which takes into account discouraged workers and workers working part-time who would like full-time work also rose from 13.6% to 13.8% in October.

Read more

Featured Monthly Discussion: Detroit, Illinois, and America’s Class Driven Political Debate

Every Month a CPEG member will be posting a brief issue analysis for discussion and comments. This month’s discussion piece was authored by CPEG member Ron Baiman, with additional commentary from CPEG member Mel Rothenberg. More information about both can be found in the “About Us” section of our site.

One of our premier cities, sitting at the center of the industrial heartland, once a symbol of democracy, upward mobility, racial integration, a growing and vibrant middle class, and opportunity and a better life for immigrants from all over the world, has gone bankrupt. The cause has been obvious for at least three decades: massive de-industrialization, free-trade, union busting, white flight and suburban sprawl, deregulation, and “Financialization.” Similarly, for the same reasons, the Illinois economy, the largest and most important in the Midwest, has been in a downward spiral for decades.

Read more

Featured Monthly Discussion: Thomas Palley

Every Month a CPEG member will be posting a selected economics article for discussion and comments. This month, CPEG member Mel Rothenberg has chosen the 2009 article “America’s Exhausted Paradigm” by Thomas Palley, available for reading here.

Executive Summary

This report traces the roots of the current financial crisis to a faulty U.S. macroeconomic paradigm. One flaw in this paradigm was the neo-liberal growth model adopted after 1980 that relied on debt and asset price inflation to drive demand. A second flaw was the model of U.S. engagement with the global economy that created a triple economic hemorrhage of spending on imports, manufacturing job losses, and off-shoring of investment. Deregulation and financial excess are important parts of the story, but they are not the ultimate cause of the crisis. Instead, they facilitated the housing bubble and are actually part of the neo-liberal model, their function being to fuel demand growth based on debt and asset price inflation. The old post–World War II growth model based on rising middle-class incomes has been dismantled, while the new neo- liberal growth model has imploded. The United States needs a new economic paradigm and a new growth model, but as yet this challenge has received little attention from policymakers or economists.

Read more